Will Ukraine have a cold winter in 2026 (with temperatures of -15 degrees Celsius lasting more than 2 days in Kyiv)?

Resolves Yes if, between 2026-12-01 and 2027-02-28, the daily mean air temperature is at or below −15 °C on 3 or more days in a row. Data: ERA5 reanalysis (Open-Meteo) and NOAA GHCN-Daily station readings; a day counts only when every source that has it agrees. Base rate: the rule held in 11 of 50 past seasons (1976/77 to 2025/26).